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The
biggest money-losing mistake inexperienced players (and
many experienced ones, for that matter) make in limit
poker generally and Texas holdem particularly is getting
involved in hands they shouldn't play at all.
I
have written many times about two basic but apparently
conflicting concepts regarding starting hands. The first
concept is that there are no hard-and-fast rules or
formulas regarding starting hands, as each individual
situation is unique and calls for independent analysis
of numerous variables. The second concept is that
starting-hand decisions are some of the easiest poker
decisions, and that when confronted with identical
scenarios, winning professional players will make
identical decisions more than 90 percent of the time.
These thoughts are reconciled by the fact that winning
players have knowledge derived from extensive experience
over numerous trials about how different hands play in
different situations, and an awareness of how the
innumerable variables beyond just the cards you hold
affect the decision to enter a pot, and if entering,
whether to do so with a call or raise.
That
said, all winning players know that good starting-hand
requirements are an important factor in playing winning
holdem. Different two-card starting combinations have
differing likelihoods of hitting strong flops and
winning money. Understand that hitting strong flops and
winning money are not necessarily the same thing
situationally, as each case depends on independent
variables. Although flop, turn, and river play warrant
independent discussion, how hands play after the flop is
a significant factor in preflop decision-making. You
want to play starting hands that will show an overall
profit and fold in the situations in which the hands
will not show a profit.
There are only 169 different two-card starting hands in
holdem (disregarding suits), and this relatively small
number gives rise to the idea in the minds of many that
starting-hand play can be reduced to a formula along the
lines of: "169 starting hands, 10 different possible
positions. Positions can be broken down into early,
middle, late, and the blinds, so there are 169 hands and
four positional choices. Of the 169 hands, somewhere
around 70 are totally unplayable, so there are 100 hands
and four positional choices, which makes 400 starting
scenarios. And perhaps I can further minimize what I
have to memorize by breaking the combinations down into
premium hands, non-premium pairs and big cards, and
non-premium suited connectors/gappers. If I memorize a
little bit, I'm ready to play holdem."
Unfortunately, it just doesn't work that way. Contrary
to the advice of many poker writers, there is not an
easy-to-learn rote strategy regarding what hands are
correct to play. This is not like memorizing
multiplication tables. There is no formula that says if
you hold two specific cards in a specific position, you
should or should not enter a pot with a call or raise.
Getting into a mindset of using a rote strategy will
cause you to make many preflop-decision errors.
There are many variables affecting what constitutes a
playable hand in any given situation. Position, player
composition/styles, number of opponents, opponents'
emotional states, tells, what happened in the previous
hand, and how this hand can affect future hands are just
a few of the things that factor in to determining the
value of the cards you hold, and affect your decision of
whether or how to enter a pot.
Fortunately, the most relevant variable applies to 100
percent of all starting-hand decisions, and is perhaps
the easiest to apply to situational analyses of starting
hands. That variable is position. At its most basic, the
general rule regarding position is to play tighter in
early position and looser in late position. It just
sucks to have the worst hand in the worst position. Most
players pay lip service to this fundamental principle;
the garbage I see people, sometimes even knowledgeable
players, turn over in early and middle position never
ceases to amaze me.
After position, the variable that most affects hand
selection is opponents' playing styles. Loose, passive
players broaden your starting-hand possibilities. Tight,
aggressive players require you to tighten up. Your
information about your opponents will be based on your
observation of their play, regardless of whether or not
you are contesting a pot with them. When I am on a list
for a game, I spend the time before I'm seated observing
the game, learning what I can about the players. There
is no spare time in poker. You're either in a hand or
watching a hand; there are no other correct behaviors.
And, yes, that includes flirting with the cocktail
waitress.
Hand-selection decisions should be based on a sliding
scale. The greater the positives of the situation, the
more you can loosen up on your starting requirements.
The greater the negatives, the more you should tighten
up on your requirements. It is important to vary your
hand-selection strategy when you are playing against
opponents who are aware and will read and adjust to your
hand selection. You must be deceptive by playing some
hands differently in order to throw the opposition off
and create doubt in their minds. In marginal situations
that can be played in different ways, your analysis
should attach strengths and weaknesses to the variables
dictated by the field and the moment, thus defining
which direction you should go.
One
situation too often ignored regarding starting-hand
decisions is how your kicker plays when holding two big
cards, suited or unsuited. One must understand kicker
issues and tend to avoid starting hands with kicker
trouble in order to become a winning limit Texas holdem
player. Kickers may be the most important component in
after-the-flop loss of chips, and avoiding kicker traps
is a major reason why starting-hand selection is such an
important issue. It is likely that more bets are won and
lost in kicker situations than in any other Texas holdem
scenario. K-10 is always in deep trouble when an
opponent holds K-J, and so on, and those who have high
awareness of this when initially deciding whether to
commit chips to the pot tend to be the ones taking down
the dough.
You'll notice that in addressing starting-hand basics, I
haven't suggested how you should play specific hands.
That would run contrary to a correct approach to
starting-hand decision-making. There is in the final
analysis only one way to make a starting-hand decision:
It must be based on the current situation. In other
words, as I have so often said before, it all just
depends.
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