|
The
strategy will still not be 'Perfect' Strategy.
Perfect strategy for Four Card Poker would require a
strategy table, several pages long, that would
require close scrutiny of ALL 5 cards dealt to the
player. As each player card can act as a penalty
card to the Dealer's hand, even the exact SUIT
makeup of the player's hand can become relevant to
the strategy.
The refined Expert Strategy for Four Card
Poker is still a strategy that will account for the
Dealer's Upcard and occasionally a single kicker in
the Player's Hand. It will NOT look at the other
cards in the player's hand (i.e. 'second' kickers)
or at the suit makeup of the Player's Hand. Basic
strategy will achieve a payback of about 98.41%.
Expert Strategy brought the payback to 98.50%.
This final piece of the strategy brings the payback
to 98.60%. While the nearly .2% increase in payback
may not sound like a lot, it will reduce the House
Edge ('vig') by better than 10%.
According to Basic Strategy, you should bet 3x
anytime you have a Pair of 10's or Better. This
ignores the Dealer's Upcard completely and is not
taking advantage of this benefit. We should be
betting 3x ANYTIME the EV of the hand goes positive,
meaning we expect to win the hand more often than we
will lose the hand.
The strategy presented below is different than
the one presented in Part Two. The strategy in Part
Two was an improvement over Basic Strategy, but the
following Strategy goes a little further. Through
computer analysis, the following Expert Strategy has
been devised:
- Bet 3x on all Pair of Aces or Better
Bet 3x on all Pair of
Kings, except bet 1x if facing an Ace and you
don't have an Ace in your hand
Bet 3x on a Pair of
Queens looking into a 2-Q. Bet 3x if Dealer has a
K or Ace up, and you have the Dealer's up-card in
your hand
Bet 3x on a Pair of
Jacks looking into a 2-J. Bet 1x if Dealer has an
Ace up. If the dealer has a Q or K up, Bet 3x if
you have the Dealer's up-card in your hand.
Bet 3x on a Pair of
10's looking into a 2-9, Bet 1x if Dealer has a
J-Ace. If the Dealer has a 10 up, and you have a
Jack or Better kicker, bet 3x, otherwise bet 1x.
Bet 3x on a Pair of 9's looking into a 2.
All other Pairs of 9's, bet 1x.
The strategy listed above is for the decision
to bet 1x vs. 3x. The other decision that needs to
be made is when to fold vs. bet 1x. According to
Basic Strategy, you should bet 1x on all Pairs of
3's or better (except when you bet 3x), and fold all
Pairs of 2's. Expert Strategy will alter this, as
well, albeit only slightly. Again, through computer
simulation, the following strategy has been
developed:
Bet 1x on a Pair of 2's looking into a 2
So, besides the payback difference, where do
these changes leave us in terms of what to expect?
- We can expect to fold just a little over
47% of the time. This is essentially unchanged
from Basic Strategy
We can expect to bet
1x just a little less than 24% of the time. This
compares to just under 22% of the time for Basic
Strategy.
We can expect to bet 3x just a little under
29% of the time. This compares to just under 31%
of the time for Basic Strategy
The net result is to shift about 2% of our
wagers from 3x betting to 1x betting. By doing this,
we buy ourselves an additional .2% of payback. On
average, we also bet about a nickel less per hand
based on a $5 ante bet, which also helps to slow our
loss rate over the long run.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
