i wish i was coming here to post, i qualified for the wsop last night...but it didnt happen...played in party's $300+25 qualifier where top16 get the 12k package...i busted out 8 short of the mark, the field was almost 650 strong......
i played for over 4.5 hours before i bowed out...i honestly have to say (after the 2nd hour break) ive never played at as many good, tables as i did last night...it was unbelievable poker...nothing like the typical Party tables...rarely were there more than 2 players in a pot...people who would raise 3/4X the blind, would actaully LAY DOWN their hand to a reraise...i enjoyed it tremendously....
as for my play...i have never played better in my life (and i have made several final tables and won a multi with several hundred before)...i got delt pocket aces twice in the 1st 3 hours, got no action and took down small pots...same for queens and tens (later in the tourney)...no action, took down the blinds...other than those pocket pairs, i didnt get any real monster hands, other than AK and AQ a few times...while people where getting boats&flushes...no such hands for me...1flush/1 straight all night...i flopped a straight on 1 hand in the 1st hour, where i was in the BB and called a small raise with 8/10 of clubs, the flop came 79J...i took down a small pot and that was my only straight of the night...it was actaully quite stunning how i was in prime position to qualify with about 40left with such crap.
as for the hourly breakdown, i finished the 1st hour with 1800 (from 1000) after getting delt AQ and flopping 2 pair...and flopping that straight....i got through the 2nd hour at 3100...key hand was when i got delt AK and raised it 175...got called by someone holding 99 (as it turned out)...i flopped an ace, bet out 200 after the flop...turn was a 3rd spade, bet out another 200 and was called...river a 4th spade giving me the Khigh flush, bet out 200 again and he called with the 9 of spades it was close to 1700chip pot....I was going great and staying right on pace with the average stack... in hour 3, i made a nice run, got delt pocket 8's limped in for 200 and called a 400 raise (my only questionable weak call of the whole night)....flop came 478 and i checked, he bet out 1200, i raised 2400 and he called...turn was a blank, i went all in for my last 500 and he called with AQ...river was an ace but it didnt matter i was now around 7000.....later on in the hour i was sitting around 7100 when i get delt AQ suited...one of the smaller stacks goes all in for his last 2200...and im thinking these are the hands, i need to win if im gonna make a run at it...so i call...he flips over AJ...turn is a J and im down below 5K (1st beat of the night)....I make to it the break and now im way behind the average stack and i know i have to make some move or its over for me...after the break, im sitting around 5700 when i get delt AQ on the button, there were already 4 limpers and i didnt want to risk going all in, in case someone was slowplaying a monster so i just called...all told there's like 6 in the pot (a 1st for sure)....flop comes like 57Q and its checked around the table...the guy before me goes all in for almost the same amount as me...I quickly call, hoping he doesnt have a set and the rest fold....he turns over KQ and my hand holds up and im sitting at 11K....i work my way up to 17K and im really primed with about 40 players left now...im in the BB with the blinds are 500/1000 when i get delt AK...guy in EP goes all in for little more than 7K...and its folded to me...and i call....he turns over AQ and im excited until the flop comes QJblank...i need a K or a 10 to take it down, neither come (bad beat #2) and im back below the average stack, when i coulda been well into the top10...for the next hour or so, im between 5000-8000 and im definitely short stacked...i make several ALL IN attempts, with the QQ/1010 dont get any action and im barely alive hanging around as others fall by the wayside from 40 left to 35 to 30 to the high twenties the blinds are 750/1500...i know if i can double up i can get back the pack of about 8-10 with the 17K chip level and have a shot at sneeking in one of the final couple spots...at the end, when the blinds hit 1000/2000 im at 6000ish and i go all in with K8spades in late position, hoping to steal....no one calls and im back at 8000+ with 8 at my table...i keep PRAYING for MY HAND to finally come, kings/queens/aces jacks...just give me a SHOT to double through...but i continue to get nothing....the blinds are coming around again when, when i get delt A9...i go all in again, and get called by AJ and the time when i need to outdraw the other guy it doesnt happen and im out in 24th.....i really feel if hadnt been unlucky in the AKvsAQ hand and had gotten even anything decent at the end, i would have certainly qualified...it sucked b/c i really played my A+++ game last night, i played super tight, didnt play any questionable hands when i had chips, mucked decent hands when there was action preflop, even when i had the hands, i played them right...and I still came up just short...ive played MUCH worse in tourneys before and finished higher...i know in my heart, if i get any sort of luck and cards, i easily crack that top16...i felt like i was swimming upstream all night and still almost made it....one of those nights i guess....
The one play I would question would be the AK vs AQ call for nearly half your stack. As I understand from your post it was down to 40 players with 16 seats, and I assume there were a few cash prizes outside of 16th place. So let's say 20 places pay a prize out of 40 players left. The blinds are 500/1000 and I would assume you are still at a full table so it's not like the blinds are really going to grind you down quickly if you don't get some action soon. I also get the impression that you have a pretty respectable stack at this point. I'm no tournament expert, but if I have a good sized stack (especially if I'm in or near the money) I tend to be more risk averse than if I were short stacked and desperate. At this point I would try to fold my way into the money, only playing pots when I had a favorable situation. In my opinion, your all-in opponent has too many chips for you to risk at this point. If you both had the same number of chips, but say there were still 150 players left, than I think calling might not be bad, you still have time to recover if you lose.
The more tournament experience I get, the more I begin to realize that success comes from avoiding situations where you are putting too many chips in on one hand, especially in hot and cold situations, even if you are a big favorite to win. For example, in your case of AK vs AQ you are a 70% favorite pre-flop. In terms of cash game play, this is a clear +EV situation. You would welcome going all-in every time here, because in the long run you would make money. But put it this way, if you play AK vs AQ hot and cold twice in a single tournament, your odds of winning BOTH pots are only 50%.
Another thing I would consider before making a decision to call is popping over to the tournament lobby to see where I stood, and more importantly to see where the shortest stacks stood. If you had a good shot at making a money finish with the 17000, I would consider it a clear fold. If it looked like I really needed to win a hand, I might consider calling. Did you consider the possibility that your opponent could have been going all-in with AA or KK? Even a lower pocket pair is a slight favorite over AK.
you make a good point with the AK...and ive actually been thinking about that call today...to answer your question, no i didnt think he had AA or KK or something like that...and i wasnt surprised to see i was leading in the hand...b/c he was on the verge of becoming severely short stacked and when that happens players tend to start playing hands like AJ/AQ aggressively....i had already 1000 committed b/c of the BB and i really didnt want to lay a hand like that down....yes i could have folded and still had 16000 and been a force...BUT, if i win that pot, im sitting around 23K and im in well into the top10 and then i can really be patient...i probably coulda gone the try to grind my way in sneek into one of the last spots (unless i find a monster later on) or i can try to make a move and get well within the #...and that was my reason for calling.....the prize pool was the following
1-16 wsop package ($12,000 value)
17th $450
18th $300ish
19th $150ish
so finsihing 17-19 wasnt even an option IMO....
If you wanna make it into the top 16, these are hands you have to plays and call the all-in. If you hit them, you´re well on your way, if you don´t, then you still got a chance. So folding the way into the money is really not an option in this kind of a tournament.
@CTBob: don´t get confused with the odds. If you play AK vs AQ you´re a about 74,3% favorite. If you win this hand and play AK vs AQ then hands later, you are again a 74,3% favorite.
If someone would come up to you and offer you to beat him on 2 hands in a row where you hold AK and he holds AQ and is offering you a bet on that deal at anything lower than -116 (about 54%) then it´s a bet at incorrect odds and only then the number you mentioned (ca 54%) is valid.
there is a difference in calculating the odds for 2 seperate events or 1 case with 2 combined events.
I got the 50% from someone else's analysis that I took at face value because it seemed to make sense. What I did was take 70% or .7 and multiply it by .7 to come up with .49 or 49% after two trials. What it is saying is that even though in each individual trial, you are a 70% favorite, your odds of winning both times are only 49%. I'm not sure now if the numbers are right, but the logic makes sense. The more times you put your chips at risk( even as a big favorite) the more you increase your chances of getting broke. I would imagine that even if you were dealt AA every hand and pushed it, eventually someone would break you.
So you are saying that the two hands are isolated events and neither effect one another? Whereas say you were in a hand with two opponents. On the end you have nothing but figure that you have a 50% chance of making either of your opponents fold if you bet. However, your chances of BOTH of them folding are only 25%-I assume this is what you would call a single case with two combined events.
I guess what I'm trying to figure out is your risk of ruin in a tournament based on the number of times you pushed all your chips in the middle (even as a favorite).
The more I think about it, I beleive my numbers to be correct. Let me explain. To make it simple, I will go back to the old coin toss. If I flip a coin and it comes up heads ten consecutive times, what are the odds of it coming up heads again, or tails for that matter? Exactly 50%. This is the law of independent trials. The outcome of previous events have no bearing on the odds of a particular event happening in the future. This is the downfall of craps and roulette players. They beleive if their number (or color) hasn't come up for a long time, it's due, or if the ball stopped on red the last 10 times, black is due the next time.
Let's look at the coin flip another way. Say you bet me that I couldn't flip heads (or tails) twice in a row on the next two flips. What kind of odds do you need to lay me in order for me to take your bet?
Similar to what I said about AK vs AQ, I would want you to offer me 4:1 or better. The chance of the coin flip coming up the same on two consecutive tries is 1/2*1/2=1/4 or 25%, so I would need better than 3:1 to make it a positive EV bet.
Now say I offered you $2:$1 on the flip of a coin. I would be an idiot to make the bet, and you would be an idiot not to take it. Now what if you only had $2 to your name. Well now I believe I would be an idiot not to offer the bet. After some initial fluctuations, at some point I would be $2 richer. Because you can't get more money, you have a high risk of ruin. If you pick heads and win the first time, despite the odds, there's no guarantee I can't flip tails the next four times and break you. This is not unlike a tournament, where your entire bankroll is the chips you have in front of you. In order to truly see the 70-30 distribution between AK and AQ you would probably have to play the hand out thousands of times.
So in conclusion, my analysis is based on the assumption of the odds of a particular event occuring consecutively are less than the odds of that event occuring an isolated time. If you go all-in AK vs AQ and win, and then you get in the same situation, your odds of winning that individual trial are still 70%,but taken overall, your odds of winning both times consecutively are only 49%. So the more you push in a tournament, the higher your risk of ruin, even if you are a favorite on every hand.
